Riding the Wave: The Hype Cycle of Biometrics and Automated Identification Technologies

Photo credit: (c) Hollie Ryan / Veritas Alchemy LLC 2014

Photo credit: (c) Hollie Ryan / Veritas Alchemy LLC 2014

When it comes to emerging technology, it often happens that we get so caught up in our desire to solve some pressing problem, or to be entertained (what we call ‘procrastination,’ when it’s our desire to simply avoid the problem…) that we can’t see the proverbial forest for the trees. Gartner, Inc., a leading industry analyst firm I discovered while studying at Johns Hopkins University, has actually built a business around one solution to the multitude of potential pitfalls caused by this dilemma. With plenty of free resources even for those who don’t necessarily have the financial means to take advantage of their tailored research services, Gartner has become particularly popular for making and updating predictions on a broad spectrum of technologies across key segments in the technology sector. These predictions, known as “Hype Cycles,” seem to generate a lot of attention, not surprisingly among the coastal innovator corridors of Silicon Valley and New England.

Published in August 2013, Gartner’s “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2013,” highlighted the evolving and converging relationship between humans and machines as a key theme based on the increase in perceived hype around smart machines, cognitive computing and the Internet of Things. Analysts believe that this relationship is being redefined through emerging technologies, and so the 2013 Hype Cycle highlights technologies that support the following areas:

1. Augmenting humans with technology
2. Machines replacing humans
3. Humans and machines working alongside each other
4. Machines better understanding humans and the environment
5. Humans better understanding machines
6. Machines and humans becoming smarter

As a discerning indicator of industry ‘hype’ for the next 12-18 months, Hype Cycles are not only valuable tools for technology end users and buyers alone. They help technology planners decide when to invest in a technology from a business standpoint, but they are perhaps even more valuable as a tool for government and academic research and development (R&D). As R&D funds are often limited or regulated in these particular sectors, a savvy Program Manager or burgeoning academic entrepreneur can use the Hype Cycle to chart a technology’s likely journey along the curve from ‘inflated expectations’ through ‘disillusionment,’ to the ‘enlightenment’ that may signal a point of conversion for former nay-sayers, before coveted public or private funds are expended on potential ‘bleeding edge’ technologies.

So what does the current hype cycle mean for biometrics and automated identification technologies?

According the 2013 report, Biometric Authentication Technologies as a category falls on the Slope of Enlightenment. Gartner’s Hype Cycle methodology would appear to indicate that: 1) more instances of how Biometric Authentication Technologies can benefit the enterprise are starting to crystallize and are becoming more widely understood; 2) second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers; 3) more enterprises fund pilots; and 4) conservative companies remain cautious. While (4) is hard to determine, in the last decade it is certainly true that, at least for certain biometric modalities like fingerprints, some companies have moved beyond second-generation biometric technologies.

Image Credit: Gartner, Inc. August 2013

Image Credit: Gartner, Inc. August 2013

What is notable is where Biometric Authentication Technologies falls on the Hype Cycle in relation to (1). In 2002, Dr. Jim Wayman concluded that although the hype—from vendors and academicians—is factually correct, it leaves an impression (among potential users) that may not be accurate. In the 2007 Gartner report, “Hype Cycle for Identity and Access Management Technologies, 2007,” Kreizman et al. found the state of Biometric Authentication Technologies to be lingering in the Trough of Disillusionment for failing to meet expectations. The report did, however, acknowledge the superior authentication strength of Biometric Authentication Technologies and their greater ease of use (when compared to passwords) as some of the benefits that would see this technology through the Trough of Disillusionment into the Slope of Enlightenment, where some businesses would continue to investigate and use this technology. While Gartner’s prediction seems to have come to pass, and potential customers and end users (witting or unwitting) of Biometric Authentication Technologies in fact have acquired a better understanding of its benefits, articles like one just this week from Nesta or the week prior from Facebook suggest that perhaps it is wider understanding of its pitfalls that is keeping Biometric Authentication Technologies from moving higher up in the Hype Cycle after seven years.

Tell us what you think below.

Does the current conversation put Biometric Authentication Technologies at risk of sliding backwards along the Hype Cycle, and is changing the conversation enough to improve perceptions?

Veritas Alchemy uses sources like Gartner as well as its own unique insight, gained from ongoing research and analysis of complex scientific and social issues and decades of experience building bridges across multiple disciplines, to identify and provide the degree of unbiased clarity that no other company currently offers. As part of our commitment to veritas, we provide strategic advice you can trust as well as clear, honest and impactful messaging that will help you to build trust with your customers. If you would like to know more about what the Hype Cycle means for your industry, investment, R&D or personal interest, and how you can best position yourself as a thought leader, feel free to contact us using the form under the Contact tab in the menu at the top of this page, or write to info@veritasalchemy.com.

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